De onzekerheid over wel of geen Brexit is met de overwinning van de pro-Brexiteers voorbij. Maar, hoe het vertrek van het VK uit de unie eruit zal zien, daar wordt de komende maanden nog verder over gesteggeld.
Dit zeggen assetmanagers over de ontwikkelingen in het VK:
Andrew Mulliner, PM Global Bonds Janus Henderson - Wie wordt de nieuwe baas van de BoE?
"Rate markets are likely to trade initially at higher yields on the prospect of better GDP data and reduced rate cut expectations. A new budget is provisionally scheduled for March where we expect more fiscal loosening. The long-end of the gilt curve will be reassured by the modesty of the budget increase relative to that in Labour's manifesto. Looking ahead, the gilt market will be focused on whether the data actually bounces from this election result as expected. It will also have an eye on the consultation on the reform to the way the Retail Prices Index measures inflation and who the next Governor of the Bank of England will be."
Quentin Fitzsimmons, fixed income portfoliomanager en Brexit-specialist T. Rowe Price - Dit is nog maar het begin
"Eigenlijk is dit nog maar het einde van het begin. Het echte werk van de onderhandelingen over de toekomstige handelsbetrekkingen van het Verenigd Koninkrijk met de EU ligt in het verschiet en dat kan een zeer ingewikkeld en moeizaam proces worden. Ervan uitgaande dat het Verenigd Koninkrijk de EU op 31 januari 2020 verlaat, zullen markten zich richten op die onderhandelingen en zal de de perceptie van de vooruitgang in de onderhandelingen de prijzen van assets in 2020 sterk bepalen."
BlackRock Investment Institute - Lastige deadline
- "Premier Boris Johnson kan de Brexit doorzetten, maar hij heeft wel een lastige deadline van eind 2020 om met de EU over een handelsovereenkomst te onderhandelen. We verwachten een verlenging.
- We verwachten dat het pond en Britse aandelen in sectoren die zich richten op de binnenlandse markt baat hebben bij meer politieke zekerheid en voorzien dat betere groeivooruitzichten leiden tot hogere effectieve rendementen op Britse obligaties.
- De Britse economie zou moeten herstellen door de grotere politieke stabiliteit en stimulerende overheidsuitgaven, maar nog niet naar de groeiniveaus van voor de Brexit."
ING - 2020 evengoed onzeker jaar voor VK
"Until we get more clarity on the transition, this all means the start of 2020 will be an uncertain phase for the UK economy. For many firms, an abrupt end to the transition period – which would see the majority of the UK leave the single market and customs union – would be very similar to a ‘no deal’ Brexit. Even if an extension is ultimately agreed, there’s a clear risk this doesn’t happen before the EU’s June deadline."
"If that’s the case, then firms will likely allocate extra resources to contingency planning. Alongside weak capital spending, this could amplify the current fragility in the jobs market. But if an extension can ultimately be agreed, a cloud of uncertainty would lift. If coupled with better global activity and an improved jobs backdrop, this would probably persuade the Bank of England to steer away from interest rate cuts next year. Either way, it’s worth remembering that is could still be some time before we get better clarity on the future relationship for specific industries. Investment will remain capped."
Aneeka Gupta, Associate Director, Research, WisdomTree - Het gaat langer duren
“The Conservative Party’s outright majority determines that the UK is on course to exit the European Union (EU) by January 2020 as his Withdrawal Agreement is certain to get through parliament by the current deadline of Jan 31. The size of Johnson’s majority gives him significant room for manoeuvre in negotiations over the future relationship with the EU."
"The Conservative Party’s manifesto pledged not to extend the transition period beyond 2020, however we expect an extension to be requested after the 1st July interim date and granted in due course. We expect to see an improvement in risk sentiment and a relief rally in assets however uncertainty is expected to resurface in due course. The Scottish National Party is on course to make significant gains in Scotland and could likely lead to renewed demands for another independence referendum in due course."
Esty Dwek, hoofd Global Market Strategy bij Natixis IM - Rente moet omlaag
"Uiteindelijk is een finale handelsovereenkomst nodig voor verdere vooruitgang. Wij verwachten dat de economische groei in het VK zwak blijft en dat de Bank of England volgend jaar de beleidsrente zal moeten verlagen."
Shamik Dhar, chief economist at BNY Mellon Investment Management - Opleving markt
“Today’s outcome offers a more definitive route to Brexit and offers the clarity that businesses and markets have been craving for the last 3 years. It is now more likely that we will leave the EU at the end of January and whatever deal we end up with is likely to be at the harder end of the Brexit outcome, like a free trade deal or similar. Coupled with an upturn in the world economy, we could see quite a strong bounce in the UK economy and the FTSE 100."
Richard Colwell, Head of UK Equities, Columbia Threadneedle Investments - Terugkeer van beleggers
"UK valuations are at 30-year lows compared with international equities as a whole, touching lows last seen in the early-1990s recession when judged by a range of measures. So the greater clarity we now have over Brexit and UK politics should not only spur an immediate stock market rally, but also encourage a longer lasting reappraisal of UK-listed companies. Global asset allocators who had fallen out of love with the UK will likely shift money back to the region. It is not just landlocked UK domestic companies that have been affected by negative sentiment towards the UK. We think there are opportunities across the UK market, in domestically and internationally focused companies."
David Lamb, Head of Dealing Fexco International Payments - Eindelijk meer stabiliteit
“Breathless talk of a Brave New World for sterling maybe overblown, but two fundamental factors that had been holding down the Pound have changed.
- Firstly the scale of the Conservatives’ victory means Boris Johnson’s withdrawal deal should sail through Parliament, finally breaking the Brexit deadlock that has so tortured the markets.
- Equally the size of Mr Johnson’s majority will give him a freer hand in the nitty gritty of trade negotiations next year. He will no longer need to pander to Britain’s hardcore leavers – meaning the end result could potentially be a softer, more market-friendly Brexit. The threat of a chaotic no deal has not gone away but it has receded, and for now the Pound is likely to cruise in a higher trading range than it has done for years.”
Sébastien Galy, Senior Macro Strategist bij Nordea Asset Management - Slechts een hobbel in de weg
“The UK has gone through many changes during its modern history and this is just a bump in the road. Greater clarity will begin to normalize investments, though the economic shock is still percolating throughout the economy and we expect the Bank of England eventually to ease. Sterling should consolidate after a rally of 1,7% overnight. At a guess, it will take another quarter for the shock to start to dissipate. Older generations will fade away and divisions between Brexiters and Remainers will evolve over time leaving the UK to potentially rejoin the EU again two decades down the road. It is a strange thing that Europe’s capital is leaving the European Union.”
David Page, senior econoom van AXA IM - Meer economische groei
"A more Brexit-aligned Tory party with a large working majority should be able to pass the Withdrawal Bill to allow the UK to leave the EU on 31 January 2020. The manifesto pledge to not extend the transition period means the risk of a de facto no-deal exit at the end of 2020 will persist, continuing to weigh on investment. Fiscal easing should provide a lift to the economy despite ongoing Brexit uncertainty. However, the Tories have been unclear on how much easing they would undertake. Despite that uncertainty, we expect the UK economy to accelerate next year. We forecast growth of 1,2% in 2020, with sterling rising modestly as Brexit risks reduce."