Brexit-Boris Johnson nieuwe premier VK
Boris Johnson mag het VK uit de Europese Unie sturen. De kans dat dat lukt is een op drie, denken beleggers. Maar wat zal het pond doen?
Paul O’Connor, Head of Multi-Asset Investments at Janus Henderson Investors
"UK equities have seen sizeable outflows from global investors since the referendum vote in 2016 and speculative positioning in sterling is very negative. If we look to betting markets as a guide to consensus expectations, we see a no-deal Brexit is a one-in-three chance, with investor dread of this being somewhat offset by the view that there is still a one-in-four chance that Brexit is cancelled (Article 50 is revoked). The perceived likelihood of a 2019 general election has been growing in recent months, highlighting another layer of uncertainty surrounding the UK outlook and yet another reason for global investors to stay away."
Colin Dryburgh, co-manager, Kames Global Diversified Growth Fund
“Given certain strong similarities between Donald Trump and Boris Johnson it has been suggested the latter could be as good for sterling as Trump has been for the dollar; you could certainly be forgiven for believing the dollar has been strong, given Trump’s recent calls for intervention. The truth is, however, the dollar is today only around 1% higher, on a trade-weighted basis, than when Trump was elected. The inference that Boris will boost the pound might be similarly incorrect. Both the UK and US economies have performed relatively well of late and both have central banks that have raised their policy interest rate; both too have yawning external deficits. Sadly, there the similarities end."
James Smith, ING
Tristan Hanson, fondsmanager bij M&G
"Johnson’s attitude to fiscal stimulus and taxation is interesting. Based on the limited information provided during his campaign, there is a probability that Johnson will look to engineer an economic stimulus funded by higher government borrowing and lower taxes. So Brexit, or no Brexit, the multi-year outlook for gilts is dangerous at today’s extremely low level of yields, even if the Bank of England cuts interest rates and resumes QE. Tax cuts and higher fiscal spending is a recipe for continued gains for the stock market but the direction of sterling and Brexit developments will play an equally significant role. It is too soon to think of longer-term consequences and how the many uncertainties will unfold. Moreover, as we have seen since the 2016 referendum, global developments can be even more important than Brexit for future returns from UK assets."?