Fleur van Dalsem werkt ruim tien jaar bij IEX en is sinds haar studietijd actief in het wereldje van de financieel economische journalistiek. Als redacteur werkte zij voor verschillende financieel economische tijdschriften en websites.

Fleur schrijft voor meerdere IEX-websites, vooral voor IEXProfs, en voor het IEXProfs magazine.


Brexit: Er is een nieuwe deal

Met nog twee weken te gaan tot een no-deal-Brexit, zijn er vandaag toch afspraken gemaakt over een vertrek van het Verenigd Koninkrijk uit de EU. Nu nog de goedkeuring.

Eindelijk, er zijn afspraken gemaakt rondom Brexit. Het is de onderhandelaars van de Europese commissie gelukt om eruit te komen met de Britse onderhandelaars. 

Beleggers zijn opgelucht, alhoewel. 

Nu is het zaak dat de achterban ook ja zegt tegen dit voorstel. De Europese leiders komen vandaag en morgen in Brussel bijeen voor een vergadering. De 27 landen moeten instemmen met de nieuwe plannen. Jean-Claude Juncker moedigt landen aan om in te stemmen met de nieuwe afspraken. 

Die houden onder meer in dat de Ieren gewoon in de douane-unie blijven, de Britten vanzelfsprekend niet en er toch gecontroleerd moet worden op de Ierse zee. Beide partijen, de Britten en de Ieren, willen de grenzen liever open houden. 

Drie keer nee

Zaterdag komt het Britse parlement in een spoedzitting bijeen om te stemmen over de nieuwe afspraken. 

De Britten hebben de Brexitplannen al drie keer afgekeurd, dus het blijft spannend of het deze keer wel lukt om het eens te worden. De DUP - de Noor-Ierse politieke partij - is in ieder geval al tegen. 

Dit zeggen assetmanagers over het nieuws: 

Paul O’Connor, Head van het UK-based Multi-Asset Team bij Janus Henderson: “The euphoric market response reflects the diminishing probability of a no-deal Brexit. While global investor skepticism about UK assets means that the rebound in sterling, gilt yields and UK stocks probably has further to run, we would be wary of extrapolating these moves too far. The path to implementation might still be a bumpy one. Even if Boris Johnson does manage to close the deal, investor celebration of this might soon be dampened by the recognition that this is a fairly hard Brexit. The UK now faces a long period of weak economic growth, regulatory uncertainty and political scuffling with our largest trading partner.”

Jim Leaviss, Hoofd van M&G’s wholesale fixed income-team: "A big question remains – can Boris Johnson’s deal pass in Parliament this weekend? I asked this question on Twitter this afternoon, and results of the vote so far suggest that the answer is no. Most estimates of how the vote might go are indeed very touch and go for the PM; Johnson does not have a Parliamentary majority, and his partner, the DUP, is against the deal. Many of the Conservative MPs expelled from the party earlier this year are also likely to vote against it. If he can’t get the vote through this weekend, Johnson will likely try to engineer a “No Deal” outcome (despite Parliament having made this difficult legally), reigniting volatility and downside risk in GBP."

Sébastien Galy, Senior Macro Strategist bij Nordea Asset Management: "The implication is that the market is very wary at this point in time as it is still very unclear if the deal will go through on Saturday. We would venture that the EU wants this deal to go through and backs the Prime Minister in its wish not to extend the period of negotiation. This means a non-negligible upside for Sterling and UK risky assets, but also a significant boost in the short and medium term for European equities from France to Germany and the Netherlands as the shock percolating through the UK economy dissipates.”

Howard Cunningham, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager bij Newton Investment Management: “In the unlikely event of an abrupt no deal Brexit on 31st October, sterling downside is greater, while gilt yields would fall, at least initially, but longer term threats to their safe-haven status would surface. If nothing is resolved this month, and an extension granted for a referendum or general election, gilts and sterling will remain stuck in no man’s land, given the outcome of either is very unpredictable.”

David Page, econoom bij AXA IM: "In truth, though Johnson is likely to require cross-party support to get this deal agreed. Opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s immediate reaction that the Johnson deal was “even worse than Theresa May’s” suggests that this will not be particularly forthcoming. That said, with over 100 Labour MPs coming from strongly Brexit supporting constituencies, there may be growing appetite from some to accept this deal and resolve Brexit before an election that is forcing the Labour Party into an ever more Remain leaning position. While more generally an overwhelming sense of Brexit fatigue may also led some to accept the relative certainty that this deal offers, even if it is recognised as sub-optimal. These uncertainties mean that a Parliamentary vote on the deal, required before 11pm on Saturday to satisfy the Benn agreement will likely be very tight."

Harald Berres, Senior Portfoliomanager bij Ethenea: “Today's reaction from the equity markets is slightly positive (Dax currently +0.5%), but by no means euphoric. In our opinion, this trend will continue towards the end of the year. The fact that uncertainties are decreasing is an important signal and important step in the right direction.”

Esty Dwek, Hoofd Global Market Strategy bij Natixis Investment Managers: "We do not believe that a no-deal is likely. Would could still see initial disappointment if the deal is not approved in the UK. And we believe that some decent earnings results in Q3 might be needed to extend the rally. - While yields have backed up, we do not expect a sharp move either as long as inflation expectations remain muted and concerns about global growth persist, but yields could still drift higher if global uncertainties continue to be removed."

Fleur van Dalsem is redacteur bij IEX.nl. Fleur van Dalsem neemt posities in op de financiele markten. De informatie in deze column is niet bedoeld als professioneel beleggingsadvies of als aanbeveling tot het doen van bepaalde beleggingen.

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