Wat is dit? Connect is het branded contentplatform van IEX Media, waar we beleggingsprofessionals met elkaar in contact brengen. Van inzicht naar inspiratie. Ook partner worden? Wij vertellen u graag meer. Sluit Investment Outlook 2021 Triodos IM: Time for different choices Disruption is the background for our investment outlook for 2021. Right in the middle of a pandemic of which there are only a few examples in history, the major financial markets – rescued by central banks and fiscal policies - by and large continue as if nothing is happening. 3 december 2020 11:00 • Door Connect Yet there is a lot going on in our ecosystems, our societies, our economies, all with grave consequences. Economic activity is slowly recovering, but a sustainable recovery is not yet to be seen. We think it is time to face the challenges and to start making different investment choices. Both for the long and the short term. 2021: What kind of recovery? Due to the COVID-19-related lockdown measures, 2020 will go into the record books as the year that saw the deepest global recession in peacetime. For 2021, we expect global growth to rebound, both in emerging and developed economies, even if it will not be a total recovery of the damage done by the pandemic. In developed markets the recovery will likely be slow amid recurring restrictive measures. For 2021, we expect global economic activity to rebound by 4.9% and developed economies to grow by an aggregated 3.7%. Pre-pandemic economic activity levels can only be reached once a vaccine has become widely available. Despite positive vaccine developments, we do not expect this to happen before the final quarter of 2021. In the meantime, further stimulus is expected. Our emerging and developing market outlook for 2021 is one of a cautious and uneven recovery, with risks tilted to the downside. After almost a year of global crises – both health and economic - and unprecedented stimulus, support will be nearing an end for most countries. There is one swing factor that could help some countries to offset the impact of the pandemic to some extent in the coming year: China’s recovery. Countries are expected to be lifted by increasing trade flows and access to capital markets. However, low-income countries with large funding gaps, will rely on debt relief and concessional financing to be able to take part in the economic recovery. With debt levels at record highs, and an uncertain economic outlook, we remain cautious in our asset allocation, neutral on average on bonds and negative about US equities and slightly positive about Japanese and European equity. We continue to see opportunities in the sustainable investment landscape, especially in Europe and Japan. The European Green Deal, the EU’s roadmap for making its economy sustainable, will likely gain momentum. The related development of a green taxonomy will enable investors to steer their investments towards more sustainable technologies and businesses, and the creation of an EU Green Bond Standard will deliver a uniform tool to assess green bonds. Different choices The social, political and economic environment is likely to remain highly uncertain in the coming years. The tailwinds of the last four decades, favouring higher returns, have changed into headwinds leading to lower expected long-term returns across the board. The financial industry should therefore look at returns in a different way. A different, more forward-looking approach is needed to see what the long-term returns of investments might be. The challenges we face - degradation of ecosystems, the loss of biodiversity, the rising inequality and polarisation in and between societies - should be taken into account in every strategic asset allocation framework. Download our Investment Outlook for 2021 And read more about the challenges you are facing as an investor and how you can mitigate the risks and get the best chances of positive long-term returns through investing in impact and transitions. Deel via:
Assetallocatie 28 mrt De succesvolle terugkeer van de 60/40-portefeuille Ewout van Schaick heeft samen met de rest van het multi-asset-oplossingen-team van Goldman Sachs AM grote verwachtingen van portefeuilles die bestaan uit 60% aandelen en 40% obligaties. Zowel voor aandelen als obligaties zijn de vooruitzichten zonnig. Mochten markten desondanks corrigeren, dan biedt de 60/40-portefeuille de spreidingsvoordelen om de klap te verzachten.
Assetallocatie 27 mrt Cash is meer king dan ooit In Europa kan een belegger dit jaar met een mix van cash en kortlopende leningen bruto tussen de 3% en 4% verdienen. Waarom dan nog risico's nemen met obligaties en aandelen, zo vraagt Alain Richier van Ostrum Asset Management zich af.
Assetallocatie 25 mrt Rabobank surft mee op recordgolf Rabobank heeft geen last van hoogtevrees. Aandelen blijven favoriet boven obligaties. De bank ziet zich gesteund door de hoge winstgroei en de historie: records komen immers zelden alleen.
Assetallocatie 21 mrt Geef uw portefeuille een boost! Yvo van der Pol, hoofd Benelux & Nordics bij PGIM Investments, is bijzonder gecharmeerd van de meer risicovolle obligaties, aandelen met sterke groeimogelijkheden en datacenters.
Assetallocatie 21 mrt U zoekt een sterk presterend mixfonds? Het is volgens Thomas de Fauw van Morningstar essentieel voor beleggers om de strategie, het proces en de beloften van fondsmanagers van mixfondsen te doorgronden.
Assetallocatie 20 mrt “Dit is een positief verhaal” Karen Ward, hoofd beleggingsstrategie EMEA bij JP Morgan AM, ziet dit jaar zonnig in, voor de Europese economie en voor Europese aandelen in het bijzonder. Ook China zou wel eens positief kunnen verrassen. Komen deze optimistische verwachtingen niet uit, dan houden obligaties en private beleggingen het portefeuillescheepje wel recht.