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Einde bullmarkt?

Wat vinden professionele beleggers van de recente marktonrust? Was het een waarschuwingsschot, of het begin van erger? IEXProfs verzamelde de commentaren (meestal in het Engels) van tien vooraanstaande internationale asset managers. De meeste kopen nu dus bij.

Goldman Sachs: Sell off niet meer dan kortetermijncorrectie

"In our view, equity fundamentals remain attractive. Strong economic growth is driving higher earnings expectations: year-to-date, the consensus FY2018 earnings growth forecast for the S&P 500 index has been revised up by 4.4 percentage points, from 12.3% to 16.7%1. We believe US tax reform provides an additional tailwind for the corporate sector that is not fully reflected in valuations."

"Considering the strong fundamental backdrop, we believe the weakness in equities is a short-term correction driven primarily by technical factors, not the start of a long-term reversal of the bull market trend. Recent weakness is a case of volatility leading the market, rather than the market leading volatility."

Schroders: Niet bang voor looninflatie

"Some market commentators have blamed the recent falls on data published last Friday that showed wages growing at 2.9%, hence the heightened concern about inflation - and the possibility of more rapid rate rises. However, this should be considered in the wider context of valuation."

"Shares had, perhaps, run too far ahead and a correction was needed. But optimists highlight plus points: economies around the world are enjoying rare synchronised growth while tax cuts in the US may further brighten the outlook for companies. Either way, investors should always consider the long-term view."

Nordea: Welk renteniveau gaat aandelenmarkt raken?

"After years of “lowflation”, there recently have been signs of inflation awakening. Hourly earnings in the US rose to the highest level since the big recession and unit labour costs increased amid weak productivity. In other words, inflation fears are back. Why is this “the real thing”? Because wages are a key driver behind the corporate profit cycle and, therefore, the real economy broadly speaking. Higher wage costs can wipe out corporate margins and force the central bank to (over-)tighten. This normally marks the beginning of the end of the US business cycle and, therefore, the equity bull market."

As a result of inflation bottoming and central banks tightening, interest rates have risen rapidly in 2018, breaking out of their recent trading ranges. Post-Lehman, low interest rates have been a key driver behind the equity bull market. Naturally, rising rates poses a major risk to markets. The key question nobody is able to answer yet is at which level of rates will equities be hurt in earnest? What we do know is that in previous episodes, a break out of the trend channel in interest rates often spelled trouble for equities (2000, 2007, 1990). Equities were already showing weakness before yesterday’s mini flash-crash, so the pain threshold might be lower than many investors think."

"Market-specific factors are playing out as well. Worth noting is the role of so-called short volatility strategies, making investors able to profit from a continuation of record-low volatility. This investment trend has gained importance over the last few years, which makes it hard to draw lessons from history on their potential market impact. To some extent we are talking about known unknowns, as investors are still very much in the dark when it comes to the impact on overall markets. Investors betting on low volatility were caught wrong-footed. This exacerbated Monday’s volatility, where these strategies took heavy losses. On top of this, technical factors come into play during rapid sell-offs, e.g. trend-following strategies, amplifying the moves to the downside."

Candriam: Correctie is instapmoment

"Sinds afgelopen week hebben de aandelenmarkten hun winsten van 2018 weer grotendeels moeten inleveren. De aandelen vertrokken te fors, te snel in januari en de vertrouwensindicatoren werden te optimistisch. De sterke neergang van de markt is evenwel eerder systematisch dan fundamenteel. De groeiende vrees van beleggers voor een einde van het zogenaamde Goudlokje-verhaal is niet gegrond en Candriam verwacht dat de gunstige fundamentele basis het zal halen."

"Aandelen zijn na de recente correctie nog aantrekkelijker geworden. De Amerikaanse aandelenmarkten verhandelen nu op 17x de bedrijfswinsten voor 2018, terwijl hun prospectieve koers-winst een week geleden nog boven 20x lag. Bovendien zou de sterke winstgroei bevorderlijk moeten blijven voor de prestaties van de aandelenmarkt. "In die fundamenteel gezonde marktomgeving en ook al kan een tweede golf van systematische verkoop opduiken, wachten we op een stabilisatie van de marktdynamieken en kijken we uit naar een aantrekkelijk instapmoment om onze aandelenblootstelling verder uit te bouwen." 

Fidelity International: Achtergebleven aandelen oprapen

"There is weakness across various equity sectors, but none so large the market is likely to fall through them. My money remains on equities - but rotating (and buying on weakness) into “value” areas of the market that have lagged in the recent momentum-driven rally." 

"I’d also be avoiding stocks where dividend yields aren’t backed up by strong free cash flow and a solid balance sheet - the search for yield hasn’t just inflated higher yielding stocks, it has fundamentally altered the business models of some companies for the worse. This supports the case for active management at the latter stages of the cycle"

"Holding this course as volatility eases won’t seem easy - but at this stage of the cycle, the money is made by keeping your head when others are losing theirs."

Robeco: Geen paniek!

"People should be aware of the risk out there, and if there’s no volatility and people are buying and buying while also leveraging, receiving a bit of pain is sometimes a useful reminder that the rally in equities was unbalanced and we need to rebalance it. It’s part of the normal market cycle.”

LGIM: Extra marktverzwakking reden om bij te kopen

"We see this as classic 'late cycle' behaviour and a precursor for more fundamental headwinds to come. In this phase, markets become more volatile and more sensitive to drawdowns as positioning becomes more concentrated and investors become more trigger happy to pre-empt the inevitable bear market. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch research, there is no serious market peak that has not been preceded by a >5% correction in the six months before, followed by a new high."

"For now, we are inclined to lean against the recent sell-off and would consider increasing our exposure to duration and equities should the market weaken much further. We also retain our overweight stance on the US dollar as a position contrary to much of the market consensus and a useful hedge against an escalation of concerns over inflation."

UBS: Risico's verminderen met hedgefondsposities

"We recommend considering exposure to hedge funds as a way of mitigating synchronised sell-offs in both bond and equity markets. Net positioning among equity hedge strategies is moderate at present, leaving them relatively well positioned for such an environment, although many trend-following strategies have large equity positions and so could underperform. Relative value trades should also still perform, and we aim to benefit from those through our tactical asset allocation."

M&G Investments: Aandelen nog aantrekkelijker

"From a fundamental standpoint little seems to have changed. Increasing wages should ultimately be a good thing for the US economy and corporate profits. These considerations and the rapid nature of the repricing suggests that there may be some non-fundamental drivers of this price action and our predisposition would be to add equity exposure."

MFS: Daling markt biedt extra kansen

"Er zijn geen signalen dat de markt lang in mineur zal blijven. Bedrijven draaien goed en de vierde kwartaalcijfers hebben de verwachtingen overtroffen.
In de obligatiemarkten is weinig te merken van een verschuiving in risicobereidheid. De recente stijging van de yields van non-investment grade obligaties wordt niet zozeer gedreven door bezorgdheid maar meer door de stijging van de rente op Treasuries.
De daling van de markt is een mooie kans voor beleggers om hun portefeuilles op te schudden en de blootstelling aan aandelen te vergroten." 

De Redactie van IEXProfs bestaat uit verschillende journalisten. De informatie in dit artikel is niet bedoeld als professioneel beleggingsadvies, of als aanbeveling tot het doen van bepaalde beleggingen. Het is mogelijk dat redactieleden posities hebben in een of meer van de genoemde fondsen. Klik hier voor een overzicht van hun beleggingen.

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